Tuesday, August 31, 2010

landlocked - Anthony Cummings

From Races.com.au
26/8/10

The Anthony Cummings-trained Landlocked has improved his chances of a berth in the 2010 Melbourne Cup after winning first-up at Canterbury yesterday.

A four-year-old son of boom sire of stayers Zabeel, Landlocked went out at $12 and enjoyed a forceful win over 1200m in the STC Members Handicap.

Landlocked, raced by Gerry Harvey, is currently one of the long-priced hopefuls for the $6 million Melbourne Cup on Tuesday November 2 paying $151 at SportsBet.

Alcopop - Moudre

From HeraldSun.com.au
30/8/10

TRAINER Jake Stephens is likely to keep Alcopop in Adelaide for one more run after an encouraging return to racing in Saturday's Penny Edition Stakes.

Stephens was more than happy with Alcopop's first-up fifth behind Victorian Spacecraft, beaten just over three lengths, and is leaning towards the Sin City Cup (formerly the Tokyo City Cup) at Morphettville in a fortnight.

"He pulled up well this morning. We'll just see how he progresses over the next few days," Stephens said yesterday. "He'd put on a lot of weight over the past week or so, and I thought his run was pretty good having missed a crucial gallop.

"It was pleasing that he had a good run behind them. I didn't want him to have a gut-buster first-up."

Stephens said he would talk to connections this week before making a decision but the Listed 1600m feature loomed as a suitable secondup mission. "I'll talk to John and Pat (Kelton, owners). A lot of the Melbourne horses are very forward and he might be best suited by racing at the mile here and then heading over," he said.

Alcopop remains a $26 Caulfield and Melbourne Cup chance, with the big mover in markets coming from the Ciaron Maher-trained Moudre, who now heads betting for the Caulfield Cup at $10 with Shoot Out after his brilliant Caulfield win.

Connections have reportedly knocked back offers believed to be as high as $2m for the rising star who now has to win the Naturalism Stakes on September 18 to guarantee a Caulfield Cup start.

Rite of Passage - Sans Frontieres - Darina - Bart Cummings

From CupCarnival.com.au
30/8/10

Other overseas raiders still on target for a tilt in the Melbourne Cup this November include Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite Of Passage and brilliant Danehill mare Profound Beauty.

Both runners are trained by two-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Dermot Weld, the only European mentor to win the Melbourne Cup.

Leading the international entries in the Melbourne Cup betting markets at SportsBet is Jeremy Noseda’s in-form British galloper Sans Frontieres paying $17 for a win.

Queensland Derby winning mare Dariana is still the $13 favourite to give Bart Cummings his unprecedented 13th Melbourne Cup victory.

To get the best Melbourne Cup odds before the weights are released this Wednesday jump online and sign up to SportsBet today, new punters will even receive a free $100 bet!

Luca Cumani - Drunken Sailor - Alcopop - Manighar - Purple Moon - Bauer

From Races.com.au

NEWS - MELBOURNE CUP
30 AUGUST 2010
Drunken Sailor, prepared by premier Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani, enjoyed a quality win at Goodwood on Saturday to further improve his chances of a run in the 2010 Melbourne Cup this November.

Six-year-old Drunken Sailor is shaping up as Cumani’s top Melbourne Cup chance this year after he claimed a last-stride win in the Listed March Stakes (2800m) on Saturday.

Making his fifth straight appearance at the Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival, Cumani is hoping this year is his year in the Melbourne Cup after twice training the second placegetters in the world’s richest handicap with Bauer (2008) and Purple Moon (2007).

Having shown continual improvement over his 31 career starts, Tendulkar gelding Drunken Sailor has won over the Melbourne Cup distance of 3200m proving himself as a genuine stayer with an impressive turn of foot and making him a real contender for the $6 million Flemington feature on November 2.

Manighar is Cumani’s other top chance in the 150th Melbourne Cup, after finishing second to fellow Cup contender Americain in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay (3000m) in France last weekend.

However Purple Moon has been ruled out due to injury and Bauer, who hasn’t raced since suffering a tendon injury when beaten by a mere nose in the 2008 Melbourne Cup by Viewed, is still in doubt.

Eight-year-old grey Bauer has the Persian Punch Stakes (2800m) scheduled as his return to racing at Sailsbury on Thursday night and his performance there will determine whether Cumani presses on to the Melbourne Cup with him.

Drunken Sailor is currently paying $61 through SportsBet in the early Melbourne Cup markets, his odds sure to shorten, while Manighar is higher up at $31.

Both are expected to arrive in Melbourne on September 25 following a bout in quarantine that they enter on Wednesday.

This Wednesday, September 1, is also when the 2010 Melbourne Cup weights will be announced.

In other 2010 Melbourne Cup news, last year’s favourite Alcopop was defeated in his first-up spring start on Saturday.

Alcopop finished fifth to classy Galileo four-year-old Spacecraft in the $80,000 Listed Penny Edition Stakes (1400m) at Morphettville.

Trainer Mick Price is now more confident of Spacecraft’s chances in the 2010 Caulfield Cup on October 16, Spacecraft currently a $34 chance at SportsBet.

For all the best odds on the spring features don’t waste your wagering dollars at the TAB. Sign up to leading online bookmaker SportsBet instead and join thousands of happy punters already enjoying the riches of betting online!

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Luca Cumani - Bauer - Drunken Sailor - Manighar -

The Australian
Alan Lee From: The Times August 26, 2010

TWO heroic failures have merely reinforced Luca Cumani's ambition to win the Melbourne Cup.

Bauer, absent through injury since being foiled by a nose two years ago, could be one of three contenders for the Newmarket trainer at Flemington on November 2.

Cumani's love of international racing is stimulated by Australia's greatest prize.

Bauer was his second successive runner-up, following Purple Moon in 2007, but the frustrations have done nothing to dampen his determination.

Three horses from the wise Italian's stable will be listed when the weights are revealed next week but Cumani admits: "Bauer is still an imponderable but Manighar and Drunken Sailor are definitely going and will start their quarantine on September 8 before flying out a fortnight later.

"Bauer is part-owned by Simon O'Donnell, the former Australia all-rounder, adding to the intrigue in an Ashes winter. Before his bid is confirmed, though, he must prove his wellbeing on the racecourse, starting either at Goodwood or Windsor on Saturday."

It will be a last-minute decision depending on the ground," Cumani said yesterday.

"He doesn't like it soft so we will go where conditions are best. After such a long time off, one run won't be sufficient, so we will look for another race before deciding if he is to travel.

"He had a tendon injury, which always leaves a question mark. The seeds of it were sown in his Cup run two years ago and it has been a long road back. You can never be confident from one day to the next but he has coped with all the work so far."

Cumani admits to confused emotions after Bauer's agonising defeat.

"Pride and frustration, a bit of both," he said. "I am always happy when they run well but to come so close for a second time was deflating, too."

He feels his hand is strong, this year, and Kieren Fallon, the stable jockey, is likely to face a challenging choice of mount. Fallon was second on the fast-finishing Manighar in a group race at Deauville last weekend and has another chance to weigh up Drunken Sailor in the Windflower March Stakes at Goodwood on Saturday.

"I've been surprised by Drunken Sailor's progress," Cumani confessed.

"We bought him for a Dubai campaign but he has run very consistently back on the turf over here. I was delighted with Manighar on Sunday and, finally, we seem to be in tune with each other.

"They will both have time to acclimatise in Australia and will each run once before Flemington, one of them in the Caulfield Cup and the other in Geelong. If Bauer makes the trip, he will go straight for the Cup."

Cumani is enjoying a fruitful summer on home soil, the partnership with Fallon complemented by the development of J.P. Guillambert, whose double for the yard last Saturday featured the latest step in the rehabilitation of Seta after her flop in the 1,000 Guineas.

The Times

Statistics, MakybeDiva, Mark Kavanagh, Shocking, Shoot Out, C'Est La Guerre, Alandi and Mourayan

HeraldSun.com.au
Nathan Exelby From: Saturday, 28 August 2010

THE Makybe Diva Stakes, formerly the Craiglee Stakes, was a sure-fire pointer to big race success but it has not been so reliable in recent years.

The race, previously known as the Craiglee Stakes, was once a sure-fire pointer to big race success but it has not been so reliable in recent years.

The 1600m Flemington weight-for-age contest, to be run on Saturday, is regarded as one of the pivotal races of the spring.

Over the years countless Cups aspirants have used it as a leap into what connections hoped would be spring glory. The race was first run in 1948 as a 10 furlong (2000m) event. It switched to a mile (1600m) in 1965 with instant success, as the race was taken out by Light Fingers who went on to win that year's Melbourne Cup.

A year later Tobin Bronze won the Craiglee before landing the first of two Cox Plates and in 1969 Rain Lover took out the race en route to a second Melbourne Cup.

This trend of success continued in the next three decades and the race remains a key pointer to Group 1 races that follow in the spring.

It's just that in the past few years, the race has been devoid of "big three" winners.

But Mark Kavanagh is one trainer hoping the bad omens surrounding the Makybe Diva Stakes will change this year.

Melbourne Cup winner Shocking is set to start in the Makybe Diva after bypassing yesterday's Memsie Stakes.

Shocking made a pleasing return behind Shoot Out in the Liston a fortnight ago and is aiming to be just the sixth galloper to win multiple Melbourne Cups.

Kavanagh says Shocking is "right on track" and feels the 1600m will suit better at this stage of his campaign.

Lloyd Williams has frequently used the race as a spring opener, having won with Mahogany and Native Jazz. Stable representative Nick Williams said the big hope for this year's carnival, Linton, would bypass the Makybe Diva, but the family would still be represented by C'Est La Guerre, Alandi and Mourayan next weekend.

The 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient has become a "day to day proposition" according to Williams. "We are hoping and have our fingers crossed," Williams said.

In the 20 runnings of the Makybe Diva Stakes from 1985 to 2004, when it was known as the Craiglee, no fewer than eight Caulfield Cup winners came through the race (which was changed to the Makybe Diva Stakes in 2007 even though the mighty mare never contested the race).

Of the eight, Sky Heights (1999) and Northerly (2002) won the Craiglee, while Tristarc (1985), Sydeston (1990), Mummify (2003) and Elvstroem (2004) placed at Flemington.

Fraar (1993) and Diatribe (2000) were both well beaten in the Craiglee, but found their best form over the 2400m at Caulfield.

The Craiglee also produced five Melbourne Cup winners in the nine runnings from 1986 to 1994.

At Talaq (1986), Subzero (1992) and Jeune (1994) all put the writing on the wall with Craiglee placings, while Tawrrific (1989) and Kingston Rule (1990) used the race as a tune-up for their 3200m assignment.

Cox Plate winners have been thinner on the ground over the same time frame, with Almaarad (1989) and Northerly (2002) the only two Moonee Valley winners to use the Craiglee as a lead-up, although Dulcify, Family Of Man and Tobin Bronze all came through the race in earlier years.

So while the Craiglee enjoyed a golden period from the mid 1980s to early 2000s in unearthing Cups and Cox Plate winners, it has been a dry run since, with Elvstroem being the most recent "big three" winner to use the race as a stepping stone.

Despite missing out on the really big ones, the Makybe Diva/Craiglee has supplied spring Group 1 winners in nine of the past 10 seasons.

Typhoon Tracy (Myer Classic) and Heart Of Dreams (Underwood) graduated from the race last year.

Finally, here's a sobering note for punters wanting to follow the Makybe Diva Stakes winner throughout the spring: From the past 25 runnings, 21 of the winners failed to win another race that campaign.

The exceptions were Weekend Hussler, Northerly, Sky Heights and Marble Halls.

Moudre, Craig Williams, Ciaron Maher

HeraldSun.com.au
28th August 2010

Up-and-coming stayer Moudre could be top jockey Craig Williams' hope in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

Leading jockey Craig Williams may have found himself a more than handy Caulfield and Melbourne Cup ride if up-and-coming stayer Moudre can continue his authoritative rise through the ranks.

Tackling his toughest test to date in Saturday's Listed Hocking Stuart Stakes (1700m) at Caulfield, Moudre overcame a luckless run to score a comfortable win and announce himself as a genuine lightweight Cups chance for Warrnambool-based trainer Ciaron Maher.

"He gave me a feeling like a horse named Leica Falcon that I rode through the ranks a few years ago," Williams said.

Williams partnered Leica Falcon when the Corowa-trained stayer burst onto the scene in the spring of 2005, winning an open handicap at Sandown and the Group Two Winning Edge Stakes before running fifth in the Caulfield Cup to Railings.

Moudre still has plenty to do before he can comfortably make the Caulfield Cup field but Williams is confident the five-year-old has what it takes to make the grade this spring.

"He's a potential star and the best part about him is that he's such a relaxed character," he said.

"When you stoke him up he finds gear after gear, he's exciting."

Moudre endured a wide run in the second half of the field before Williams began to creep forward at the 800m and by the turn he was poised to pounce and soon left Diggersanddealers and Apprehend in his wake, eventually winning by 3-1/4 lengths from that duo.

Maher, who knows a thing or two about what it takes to win a good race during spring having saddled up 100-1 shot Tears I Cry to win the Group One Emirates Stakes in 2007, is keeping the lid on his latest star galloper as he progresses towards the Cups.

"He keeps answering his critics and that was a good win. It takes a while for a few of them to find their feet but he's really come on and matured in the last year," he said.

"We'll go to the Naturalism Stakes here in September now. He needs to keep winning."
Each year I write an eBook titled How to Pick The Winner Of The Emirates Melbourne Cup. When you purchase your copy of the eBook at www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au you automatically get access to my Melbourne Cup Morning last minute selections. This was the information last year's subscribers accessed.

"Be aware that a thorough examination of statistics for the last 50 years indicate the Cup will probably be won by a 4, 5 or 6 yr old colt or gelding. They also indicate the horse won’t carry less than 50 kgs or more than 56.5 kgs. Also, the starting price of the winner will more that likely be less than 20/1. They also indicate the favourite only wins once every five years.And statistics, since 1861, indicate only once every 37 years will the same horse win two consecutive Melbourne Cups."

"Allowing for this and after studying the form of all of the horses I believe one of these six horses will win the 2009 Melbourne Cup. Daffodil, Shocking, Master O’Reilly, Viewed, Alcopop, Roman Emperor."

"If you rely totally on the statistical information above you would have to rule out Daffodil, Master O’Reilly and Viewed. Thus, statistics indicate that the Cup winner should be Alcopop, Roman Emperor or Shocking. And if you are leaning towards any of these three horses be aware that statistics are on your side."

Of course, you now know that Shocking won the 2009 Melbourne Cup. And i happily tell 4 of my selections finished 1st, 4th, 6th and 7th.

I invite you to check out the site at www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au and order your copy now (Costs $9.95).