Alcopop heads Melbourne Cup market
Adrian Dunn in the Herald Sun on November 25, 2009 wrote:
Jockey Dom Tourneur returns to scale aboard Alcopop. Picture: Russel Tindale Source: Herald Sun
EMERGING star Alcopop shares favouritism with Melbourne Cup winner Shocking and Cox Plate winner So You Think for next year's Melbourne Cup.
Eskander's Betstar yesterday posted the first market on the 2010 Cup, 344 days before the running of the world's greatest 3200m handicap.
Shocking, Alcopop and So You Think are at $21, while Victoria Derby winner Monaco Consul and Shamoline Warrior, the Derby favourite before his race-morning scratching, and Metropolitan winner Speed Gifted are next at $26.
Betstar spokesman Michael Horne said he would let punters decide who should be favourite.
Horne said recently purchased Europeans Alandi, winner of the Irish St Leger, and Doctor Fremantle and Above Average, who have both joined the Lee Freedman stable, were $41.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
Sterling Prince for 2010 Melbourne Cup
Melbourne Cup 2010 for Sterling Prince
By Robert Windmill
18:49 AEST Sat Nov 7 2009
Latest Horse Racing:
New Zealand trainer Wayne Hillis has vowed to return with Sterling Prince for next year's Melbourne Cup after the gelding's runaway win in the Group Three Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington.
Hillis is hoping that the six-year-old can use the victory as a platform for the Cup in the same way as Makybe Diva who won the 2002 Queen Elizabeth before winning her first of three Melbourne Cups in 2003.
Sterling Prince was blooded for greater things this spring when third to Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup and fifth in the Lexus Quality leading up to today's victory over 2500m which was his first beyond 1600 metres and his fifth in 28 starts.
"He might be better next year," Hillis said.
"I think having a run around here now he will come back stronger and know the course."
Sterling Prince was being aimed at this year's Melbourne Cup but connections mistimed the declarations and he didn't qualify.
Hillis said Sterling Prince shied at the winning post which cost him second place in the Geelong Cup while last start in the Lexus he wasn't suited when left in front.
"He has always been wayward and slow at learning things and beaten himself a few times but he is finally getting it together now," Hillis said.
Hugh Bowman, who has ridden the stayer at his three Australian runs, said the Queen Elizabeth unfolded as he had hoped with him settling fourth while Alexander Of Hales, pressured by Stormhill, ensured a strong pace.
"He settled much better today with the trail," Bowman said.
"There was a bit of pace in the race and he drew (barrier) one and all these things make a difference."
Bowman waited until well into the straight to make his move on Sterling Prince and he scored by two lengths from Crossthestart with the Bart Cummings-trained Naval Escort 1-1/4 lengths away third.
Bowman said his confidence in Sterling Prince grew after Crime Scene, who finished sixth in the Geelong Cup, was able to run second to Shocking in the Melbourne Cup.
Sterling Prince is by the impeccably-bred stallion Colombia who, by Zabeel from Eight Carat, failed to make an impact on the track but is a full or half-brother to five Group One winners including Octagonal.
Hillis, who trains at Matamata, said he would consider backing up Sterling Prince in next Saturday's Group Two Sandown Classic but he was more likely to be flown back to New Zealand on Sunday night.
He said he hoped the Queen Elizabeth win would encourage the Hong Kong Jockey Club to invite Sterling Prince to compete in next month's Group One Hong Kong Vase (2400m).
"We have nominated him for it and it wouldn't be a bad race to run him in," Hillis said.
Glen Boss was taken with the run on Naval Escort who made up a lot of ground after being last most of the way.
"He is a promising stayer in the making," Boss said.
By Robert Windmill
18:49 AEST Sat Nov 7 2009
Latest Horse Racing:
New Zealand trainer Wayne Hillis has vowed to return with Sterling Prince for next year's Melbourne Cup after the gelding's runaway win in the Group Three Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Flemington.
Hillis is hoping that the six-year-old can use the victory as a platform for the Cup in the same way as Makybe Diva who won the 2002 Queen Elizabeth before winning her first of three Melbourne Cups in 2003.
Sterling Prince was blooded for greater things this spring when third to Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup and fifth in the Lexus Quality leading up to today's victory over 2500m which was his first beyond 1600 metres and his fifth in 28 starts.
"He might be better next year," Hillis said.
"I think having a run around here now he will come back stronger and know the course."
Sterling Prince was being aimed at this year's Melbourne Cup but connections mistimed the declarations and he didn't qualify.
Hillis said Sterling Prince shied at the winning post which cost him second place in the Geelong Cup while last start in the Lexus he wasn't suited when left in front.
"He has always been wayward and slow at learning things and beaten himself a few times but he is finally getting it together now," Hillis said.
Hugh Bowman, who has ridden the stayer at his three Australian runs, said the Queen Elizabeth unfolded as he had hoped with him settling fourth while Alexander Of Hales, pressured by Stormhill, ensured a strong pace.
"He settled much better today with the trail," Bowman said.
"There was a bit of pace in the race and he drew (barrier) one and all these things make a difference."
Bowman waited until well into the straight to make his move on Sterling Prince and he scored by two lengths from Crossthestart with the Bart Cummings-trained Naval Escort 1-1/4 lengths away third.
Bowman said his confidence in Sterling Prince grew after Crime Scene, who finished sixth in the Geelong Cup, was able to run second to Shocking in the Melbourne Cup.
Sterling Prince is by the impeccably-bred stallion Colombia who, by Zabeel from Eight Carat, failed to make an impact on the track but is a full or half-brother to five Group One winners including Octagonal.
Hillis, who trains at Matamata, said he would consider backing up Sterling Prince in next Saturday's Group Two Sandown Classic but he was more likely to be flown back to New Zealand on Sunday night.
He said he hoped the Queen Elizabeth win would encourage the Hong Kong Jockey Club to invite Sterling Prince to compete in next month's Group One Hong Kong Vase (2400m).
"We have nominated him for it and it wouldn't be a bad race to run him in," Hillis said.
Glen Boss was taken with the run on Naval Escort who made up a lot of ground after being last most of the way.
"He is a promising stayer in the making," Boss said.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Good result at PickTheCupWinner.com.au
If you subscribed to PickTheCupWinner.com.au you will have noted my note to you on the password protected page saying saying:
"Be aware that a thorough examination of statistics for the last 50 years indicate the Cup will probably be won by a 4, 5 or 6 yr old colt or gelding. They also indicate the horse won’t carry less than 50 kgs or more than 56.5 kgs. Also, the starting price of the winner will more that likely be less than 20/1. They also indicate the favourite only wins once every five years.And statistics, since 1861, indicate only once every 37 years will the same horse win two consecutive Melbourne Cups."
.
"Allowing for this and after studying the form of all of the horses I believe one of these six horses will win the 2009 Melbourne Cup. Daffodil, Shocking, Master O’Reilly, Viewed, Alcopop, Roman Emperor."
"If you rely totally on the statistical information above you would have to rule out Daffodil, Master O’Reilly, Viewed. Thus, statistics indicate that the Cup winner should be Alcopop, Roman Emperor or Shocking. And if you are leaning towards any of these three horses be aware that statistics are on your side."
And , if you read below you will see 4 of my selections 1st, 4th, 6th and 7th.
Ummmmmmm......not bad!
"Be aware that a thorough examination of statistics for the last 50 years indicate the Cup will probably be won by a 4, 5 or 6 yr old colt or gelding. They also indicate the horse won’t carry less than 50 kgs or more than 56.5 kgs. Also, the starting price of the winner will more that likely be less than 20/1. They also indicate the favourite only wins once every five years.And statistics, since 1861, indicate only once every 37 years will the same horse win two consecutive Melbourne Cups."
.
"Allowing for this and after studying the form of all of the horses I believe one of these six horses will win the 2009 Melbourne Cup. Daffodil, Shocking, Master O’Reilly, Viewed, Alcopop, Roman Emperor."
"If you rely totally on the statistical information above you would have to rule out Daffodil, Master O’Reilly, Viewed. Thus, statistics indicate that the Cup winner should be Alcopop, Roman Emperor or Shocking. And if you are leaning towards any of these three horses be aware that statistics are on your side."
And , if you read below you will see 4 of my selections 1st, 4th, 6th and 7th.
Ummmmmmm......not bad!
Melbourne Cup 2009 Results
1st SHOCKING
2nd CRIME SCENE
3rd MOURILYAN
4th MASTER O'REILLY
5th HARRIS TWEED
6th ALCOPOP
7th VIEWED
8th C'EST LA GUERRE
9th KIBBUTZ
10th NEWPORT
11th DAFFODIL
12th MUNSEF
13th GALLIONS REACH
14th LEICA DING
15th ISTA KAREEM
16th ALLEZ WONDER
17th CAPECOVER
18th BASALTICO
19th ZAVITE
20th SPIN AROUND
21st ROMAN EMPEROR
22nd FIUMICINO
23rd WARRINGAH
2nd CRIME SCENE
3rd MOURILYAN
4th MASTER O'REILLY
5th HARRIS TWEED
6th ALCOPOP
7th VIEWED
8th C'EST LA GUERRE
9th KIBBUTZ
10th NEWPORT
11th DAFFODIL
12th MUNSEF
13th GALLIONS REACH
14th LEICA DING
15th ISTA KAREEM
16th ALLEZ WONDER
17th CAPECOVER
18th BASALTICO
19th ZAVITE
20th SPIN AROUND
21st ROMAN EMPEROR
22nd FIUMICINO
23rd WARRINGAH
Sunday, November 1, 2009
McKinnon and Lexus Results from Saturday 31/10/09
As mentioned in my e-book "How To Pick The Cup Winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup" the Lexus Stakes and the Mckinnon have, in the past, been good indicators for the Melbourne Cup. Trainers, like the legendary Bart Cummings, have used it as a 'last hit out' for some of their charges. Some trainers use the races to 'qualify' their horses, as the winners get automatic entry into the Melbourne Cup.
My selection format, as described in "How To Pick The Cup Winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup", is to reduce the choice from a selection of 1 of 24 horses to 1 of 6 horses. Then I have a small each way bet on the 6 horses.
My Melbourne Cup betting will never make me wealthy but only twice in the last 20 years have I not selected the winner using this system. And, in my e-book, I tell how I reduce that six down to three and then down to one. And whilst I've never been successful with a Cup Trifecta I have selected 12 out of the last 21 winners including 6 out of the last 10. I invite you to check out my e-book at www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
The results of the Lexus Stakes were:
1st Shocking
2nd Hume
3rd Irazu
4th Naval Escort
5th Sterling Prince
The Results for the McKinnon Stakes were:
1st Scenic Shot
2nd Miss Maren
3rd Viewed
4th Racing To Win
5th Master O'Reilly
6th Newport
My selection format, as described in "How To Pick The Cup Winner of the 2009 Melbourne Cup", is to reduce the choice from a selection of 1 of 24 horses to 1 of 6 horses. Then I have a small each way bet on the 6 horses.
My Melbourne Cup betting will never make me wealthy but only twice in the last 20 years have I not selected the winner using this system. And, in my e-book, I tell how I reduce that six down to three and then down to one. And whilst I've never been successful with a Cup Trifecta I have selected 12 out of the last 21 winners including 6 out of the last 10. I invite you to check out my e-book at www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au
The results of the Lexus Stakes were:
1st Shocking
2nd Hume
3rd Irazu
4th Naval Escort
5th Sterling Prince
The Results for the McKinnon Stakes were:
1st Scenic Shot
2nd Miss Maren
3rd Viewed
4th Racing To Win
5th Master O'Reilly
6th Newport
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Bloopers, Blunders and Stacks of Statistics
My Dad, who was a bookmaker in the NSW country town of Moree, once told me that he thought owners, trainers and jockeys were the 'worst' judges. Rightly or wrongly he believed they were 'too close' to the action and prone to let emotions rule their racing decisions. They too easily seriously believe 'their' horse will win every race, every time...particularly the big races.
I have to say as a part owner of several horses over the years I certainly have to agree with my Dad. I certainly was 'too emotional.' Every time our horse started I was quite sure it would win. I tipped it to everyone. And I was quite sure it was only a matter of time before our steed would win the Melbourne Cup. (Yeah…right!)
And here are some examples to back up my Dad's supposition.
Blooper – Jockey Jack Purtell in 1950
Jack Purtell usually rode Comic Court but he rejected the offer from Bart Cummings Dad, Jim, to ride the 1950 Cup winner Comic Court. Instead he chose to ride the favourite Alister. Pat Glennon was the lucky jockey to pick up the winning ride on Comic Court.
Blooper – Owner Rex White 1956
Mr and Mrs Rex White, the first husband and wife team to win the Cup, was quite sure their horse Evening Peel would win the Caulfield Cup and Redcraze would win the Melbourne Cup. They backed the double at 160/1. They were wrong…. the reverse happened!
Blooper – Jockey Ron Hutchinson 1959
Ron Hutchinson, in 1959, chose to ride Trellios even thought he was the usual rider for the winner Macdougall. Pat Glennon was the lucky jockey to pick up the winning ride on Macdougall.
Blooper – Jockey Les Coles 1963
Les Coles (winner on Even Stevens in 1962) rode Gatum Gatum to win the Moonee Valley Cup that year. However he chose to ride Conference in the Cup. The ride on the winner Gatum Gatum was picked up by Jim Johnson (Who rode Rain Lover in ‘68 & ‘69)
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings 1974
Cummings bought Think Big for $10,000 and sold to Mr Tan Chin Nam a banker and property developer from Kuala Lumper and Australian Rick O’Sullivan for $20,000. TB went on to win $262,720 in two seasons.
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings 1974
Prior to the running of the 1974 Cup Bat Cummings supposedly confided in a friend that Leilani was an ‘absolute certainty’. When his second string horse the 12/1 Think Big beat the 7/2 favourite Cummings was heard to say “I beat myself!”
Blooper(almost)– Jockey Harry White 1974
Harry White wanted to switch from Think Big to Leilani (usual rider Roy Higgins had been suspended and Cummings had replaced him with Peter Cook) Cummings told him to stick to TB and he did. Cummings also trained Leilan
Blooper – Owner Pat O’Sullivan – 1975
Think Big’s other owner O’Sullivan visited course with friend on Monday. Number (TB’s Cup no) was in judges frame. Friend said this was good omen! O’Sullivan did not back horse. He backed another of Cummings horses Holiday Wagon!
Blooper – Trainer George Hanlon – 1978
In 1978, George told the owners (one of them Eddie Doon an ex jockey) of Arwon they would be wasting time if they paid their Cup acceptance fee. Having total faith in George’s ability they said “George, we’ll pay the money and leave the rest to you.” (And Arwon won!)
Blooper – Jockey Roy Higgins – 1979
Roy Higgins chose 2nd place getter Salamander ahead of Hyperno the winner.
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings – 1979
The owners of Hyperno asked Bart Cummings if he would take over the training of Hyperno early in 1979 he said “ Hyperno is finished. I don’t want to take on broken down horses. It’s hard enough to win when the horse is sound.” Then Bart did an about turn and trained him to win the 1979 Melbourne Cup.
Blooper – Trainer Tom Smith 1981
In 1981, Tommy Smith was totally convinced Kingston Town would win the Cup. Even though he had been allocated 60.5 kgs. On the eve of the Cup he declared him a certainty and said it “won’t be a race!” The winner was Just a Dash – the trainer was none other than Tommy Smith! Kingston Town finished 3rd last.
Blooper – Jockey Robert Heffernen 1984
In 1984, jockey Robert Heffernan was the stable rider for George Hanlon and had won the Werribee Cup on Martian’s Son. George’s other horse in the event was Black Knight. With a bit of nudging from George, Heffernen chose to ride Martian’s Son. This gave Peter Cook the chance to ride Black Knight
who won and Martian’s Son finished 17th.
Blooper – Jockeys Griffiths & Dye 1994
I n 1994, after Jeune failed in the Cox Plate, jockey Robbie Griffiths declared Jeune could not win and switched to Air Seattle in the Cup. Shane Dye also was offered the opportunity to ride Jeune, but, after riding him in the McKinnon Stakes, he chose to ride Coachwood as his Melbourne Cup mount. Finally Wayne Harris was asked and accepted the ride on Jeune. Good decision Wayne!
Blooper – Jockey Chris Munce 2000
After winning the Saab Quality Handicap, on Brew, three days before the Cup Chris Munce chose to ride Coco Cabanna in the Cup. Brett Prebble said he could not make the weight and several senior jockeys knocked back the ride on Brew. Kerrin McEvoy jumped at the opportunity to ride in his first Melbourne Cup. And what a good decision that was!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Stacks of Statistics
Tip on Sex: Far more males have won the Melbourne Cup than mares. In the last 50 years 28 Geldings and 12 horses have won while mares have only won 10 times. (And Makybe Diva accounted for three of these)
Tip on early betting: The Melbourne Cup usually has 24 starters. (I say usually because sometimes there are scratching on the morning of the Cup. In 2007 there were only 21starters with three horses being scratched between 8am and 11 am on the morning of the Cup. So, don’t bet too early.
Tip on Age (1): Whilst 3 yr olds featured as winners in the first seventy years of the Cup no 3 yr old has won since 1941.
Tip on Age (2): 14 x 4yr olds; 19 x 5yr olds and 13 x 6 yr olds have won in the last 50 years
Tip on Age (3): Only 3 x 7 yr olds have won in the last 50 years.
Tip on Barriers (1): Barriers are important. The most successful barrier in the last 50 years has been Barrier #11. It has had six wins. Barrier #22 has had three wins. It is as well to mention that Barrier #9 has had two wins...but these have been in consecutive years. 2007 & 2008. So if you believe in the ‘three theory’ then maybe you should be aware of this.
Tip on Barriers (2): You should also be aware that no horse has ever won from Barrier #18 since barriers came into use in 1924. And barrier 12 has not won since 1949 when Foxami won. The inside barrier can be a bit of a handicap as Barrier #1 has only had 2 winners since 1924 – Dalray in 1952 Kingston Rule in 1990. Whist 11 horses have won from Barrier #22 or more The last one was Brew in 2000 from #22.
Tip on Horse No: In the last 50 years the ‘luckiest’ or most successful number carried by the winning horse has been #6. It has had 8 wins. Followed by #2 with 6 wins; followed by #8 with 4 wins and #15 with 3 wins.
Tip on Names: Since 1861 No horses with names beginning with I, Q, U, X have ever won the Melbourne Cup. Only one horse beginning with O (Old Rowley 1940) and one beginning with Z (Zulu in 1881) have won the Cup. The most popular initial for the winners name to begin with is T. Fifteen of these have won. The last one being Tawrrific in 1989. M is the next most successful with 12 winners since 1861. The last one was Makybe Diva
Tip on backing long shots: Whilst it would be wonderful to back 100/1 winner of the Melbourne Cup the data shows this rarely happens. It happened in 1871 and again in 1936. But in the last 50 years the longest priced winner was Hi Jinx in 1960. She started at 50/1. But I should also point out that Viewed (in 2008) was the next longest price at 45/1.
Tip on backing favourites: In the last 50 years favourites have won on 10 times. That’s once every five years. Makybe Diva was the last favourite to win in 2005.
Tip on backing 50/1 horses: In the last 50 years only one horse has won at 50/1 or over. This was Hi Jinx in 1960.
Tip on backing 40/1 – 50/1 horses: In the last 50 years only two horses has won at odds between 40/1 – 50/1. These were Piping Lane in 1972 and Viewed in 2008
Tip on backing 30/1 - 40/1 horses: In the last 50 years only two horses has won at odds between 30/1 - 40/1. These were Thin Big (1975) and Tawrrific (1989)
Tip on weight (1): Too much weight can ‘kill’ your horse’s chances. Indeed in the last 50 years only two horses have carried 57 kgs or more and won the race – Galilee (1966) carried 57kgs and Makybe Diva in in 2005 carried 58kg.
Tip on weight (1): One would think if the ‘top weights’ don’t win that often then the ‘bottom weights’ must have all the successes. Not so! In the last 50 years only five horses have carried 50kgs or less to win the race.
Tip on Omens: If you believe in the oft repeated quote “History repeats itself” you might want to endeavour to connect a horse in the 2009 Melbourne Cup with the horse that won in 1909. And that horse was Prince Foote.
So, "Where to from here?" you might ask. You may now need human intervention to make some sense of all this information. Can I recommend you check out my e-book www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au. My Melbourne Cup tipping record is good. I have picked 12 out of the last 21 winners and 6 out of the last 10. Not perfect...but not bad!
The e-book cost $9.95...and how is this for a deal. If you buy the e-book you get the opportunity to download $150 worth of complimentary food and beverage at some of the best pubs around Australia where you can celebrate or commiserate after the 2009 Melbourne Cup!
I have to say as a part owner of several horses over the years I certainly have to agree with my Dad. I certainly was 'too emotional.' Every time our horse started I was quite sure it would win. I tipped it to everyone. And I was quite sure it was only a matter of time before our steed would win the Melbourne Cup. (Yeah…right!)
And here are some examples to back up my Dad's supposition.
Blooper – Jockey Jack Purtell in 1950
Jack Purtell usually rode Comic Court but he rejected the offer from Bart Cummings Dad, Jim, to ride the 1950 Cup winner Comic Court. Instead he chose to ride the favourite Alister. Pat Glennon was the lucky jockey to pick up the winning ride on Comic Court.
Blooper – Owner Rex White 1956
Mr and Mrs Rex White, the first husband and wife team to win the Cup, was quite sure their horse Evening Peel would win the Caulfield Cup and Redcraze would win the Melbourne Cup. They backed the double at 160/1. They were wrong…. the reverse happened!
Blooper – Jockey Ron Hutchinson 1959
Ron Hutchinson, in 1959, chose to ride Trellios even thought he was the usual rider for the winner Macdougall. Pat Glennon was the lucky jockey to pick up the winning ride on Macdougall.
Blooper – Jockey Les Coles 1963
Les Coles (winner on Even Stevens in 1962) rode Gatum Gatum to win the Moonee Valley Cup that year. However he chose to ride Conference in the Cup. The ride on the winner Gatum Gatum was picked up by Jim Johnson (Who rode Rain Lover in ‘68 & ‘69)
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings 1974
Cummings bought Think Big for $10,000 and sold to Mr Tan Chin Nam a banker and property developer from Kuala Lumper and Australian Rick O’Sullivan for $20,000. TB went on to win $262,720 in two seasons.
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings 1974
Prior to the running of the 1974 Cup Bat Cummings supposedly confided in a friend that Leilani was an ‘absolute certainty’. When his second string horse the 12/1 Think Big beat the 7/2 favourite Cummings was heard to say “I beat myself!”
Blooper(almost)– Jockey Harry White 1974
Harry White wanted to switch from Think Big to Leilani (usual rider Roy Higgins had been suspended and Cummings had replaced him with Peter Cook) Cummings told him to stick to TB and he did. Cummings also trained Leilan
Blooper – Owner Pat O’Sullivan – 1975
Think Big’s other owner O’Sullivan visited course with friend on Monday. Number (TB’s Cup no) was in judges frame. Friend said this was good omen! O’Sullivan did not back horse. He backed another of Cummings horses Holiday Wagon!
Blooper – Trainer George Hanlon – 1978
In 1978, George told the owners (one of them Eddie Doon an ex jockey) of Arwon they would be wasting time if they paid their Cup acceptance fee. Having total faith in George’s ability they said “George, we’ll pay the money and leave the rest to you.” (And Arwon won!)
Blooper – Jockey Roy Higgins – 1979
Roy Higgins chose 2nd place getter Salamander ahead of Hyperno the winner.
Blooper – Trainer Bart Cummings – 1979
The owners of Hyperno asked Bart Cummings if he would take over the training of Hyperno early in 1979 he said “ Hyperno is finished. I don’t want to take on broken down horses. It’s hard enough to win when the horse is sound.” Then Bart did an about turn and trained him to win the 1979 Melbourne Cup.
Blooper – Trainer Tom Smith 1981
In 1981, Tommy Smith was totally convinced Kingston Town would win the Cup. Even though he had been allocated 60.5 kgs. On the eve of the Cup he declared him a certainty and said it “won’t be a race!” The winner was Just a Dash – the trainer was none other than Tommy Smith! Kingston Town finished 3rd last.
Blooper – Jockey Robert Heffernen 1984
In 1984, jockey Robert Heffernan was the stable rider for George Hanlon and had won the Werribee Cup on Martian’s Son. George’s other horse in the event was Black Knight. With a bit of nudging from George, Heffernen chose to ride Martian’s Son. This gave Peter Cook the chance to ride Black Knight
who won and Martian’s Son finished 17th.
Blooper – Jockeys Griffiths & Dye 1994
I n 1994, after Jeune failed in the Cox Plate, jockey Robbie Griffiths declared Jeune could not win and switched to Air Seattle in the Cup. Shane Dye also was offered the opportunity to ride Jeune, but, after riding him in the McKinnon Stakes, he chose to ride Coachwood as his Melbourne Cup mount. Finally Wayne Harris was asked and accepted the ride on Jeune. Good decision Wayne!
Blooper – Jockey Chris Munce 2000
After winning the Saab Quality Handicap, on Brew, three days before the Cup Chris Munce chose to ride Coco Cabanna in the Cup. Brett Prebble said he could not make the weight and several senior jockeys knocked back the ride on Brew. Kerrin McEvoy jumped at the opportunity to ride in his first Melbourne Cup. And what a good decision that was!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Stacks of Statistics
Tip on Sex: Far more males have won the Melbourne Cup than mares. In the last 50 years 28 Geldings and 12 horses have won while mares have only won 10 times. (And Makybe Diva accounted for three of these)
Tip on early betting: The Melbourne Cup usually has 24 starters. (I say usually because sometimes there are scratching on the morning of the Cup. In 2007 there were only 21starters with three horses being scratched between 8am and 11 am on the morning of the Cup. So, don’t bet too early.
Tip on Age (1): Whilst 3 yr olds featured as winners in the first seventy years of the Cup no 3 yr old has won since 1941.
Tip on Age (2): 14 x 4yr olds; 19 x 5yr olds and 13 x 6 yr olds have won in the last 50 years
Tip on Age (3): Only 3 x 7 yr olds have won in the last 50 years.
Tip on Barriers (1): Barriers are important. The most successful barrier in the last 50 years has been Barrier #11. It has had six wins. Barrier #22 has had three wins. It is as well to mention that Barrier #9 has had two wins...but these have been in consecutive years. 2007 & 2008. So if you believe in the ‘three theory’ then maybe you should be aware of this.
Tip on Barriers (2): You should also be aware that no horse has ever won from Barrier #18 since barriers came into use in 1924. And barrier 12 has not won since 1949 when Foxami won. The inside barrier can be a bit of a handicap as Barrier #1 has only had 2 winners since 1924 – Dalray in 1952 Kingston Rule in 1990. Whist 11 horses have won from Barrier #22 or more The last one was Brew in 2000 from #22.
Tip on Horse No: In the last 50 years the ‘luckiest’ or most successful number carried by the winning horse has been #6. It has had 8 wins. Followed by #2 with 6 wins; followed by #8 with 4 wins and #15 with 3 wins.
Tip on Names: Since 1861 No horses with names beginning with I, Q, U, X have ever won the Melbourne Cup. Only one horse beginning with O (Old Rowley 1940) and one beginning with Z (Zulu in 1881) have won the Cup. The most popular initial for the winners name to begin with is T. Fifteen of these have won. The last one being Tawrrific in 1989. M is the next most successful with 12 winners since 1861. The last one was Makybe Diva
Tip on backing long shots: Whilst it would be wonderful to back 100/1 winner of the Melbourne Cup the data shows this rarely happens. It happened in 1871 and again in 1936. But in the last 50 years the longest priced winner was Hi Jinx in 1960. She started at 50/1. But I should also point out that Viewed (in 2008) was the next longest price at 45/1.
Tip on backing favourites: In the last 50 years favourites have won on 10 times. That’s once every five years. Makybe Diva was the last favourite to win in 2005.
Tip on backing 50/1 horses: In the last 50 years only one horse has won at 50/1 or over. This was Hi Jinx in 1960.
Tip on backing 40/1 – 50/1 horses: In the last 50 years only two horses has won at odds between 40/1 – 50/1. These were Piping Lane in 1972 and Viewed in 2008
Tip on backing 30/1 - 40/1 horses: In the last 50 years only two horses has won at odds between 30/1 - 40/1. These were Thin Big (1975) and Tawrrific (1989)
Tip on weight (1): Too much weight can ‘kill’ your horse’s chances. Indeed in the last 50 years only two horses have carried 57 kgs or more and won the race – Galilee (1966) carried 57kgs and Makybe Diva in in 2005 carried 58kg.
Tip on weight (1): One would think if the ‘top weights’ don’t win that often then the ‘bottom weights’ must have all the successes. Not so! In the last 50 years only five horses have carried 50kgs or less to win the race.
Tip on Omens: If you believe in the oft repeated quote “History repeats itself” you might want to endeavour to connect a horse in the 2009 Melbourne Cup with the horse that won in 1909. And that horse was Prince Foote.
So, "Where to from here?" you might ask. You may now need human intervention to make some sense of all this information. Can I recommend you check out my e-book www.PickTheCupWinner.com.au. My Melbourne Cup tipping record is good. I have picked 12 out of the last 21 winners and 6 out of the last 10. Not perfect...but not bad!
The e-book cost $9.95...and how is this for a deal. If you buy the e-book you get the opportunity to download $150 worth of complimentary food and beverage at some of the best pubs around Australia where you can celebrate or commiserate after the 2009 Melbourne Cup!
Cox Plate Results
8-TATTS COX PLATE 2040m:
1st So You Think
2nd Manhattan Rain
3rd Zipping
14.00 SO YOU THINK (Dato Tan Chin Nam & Tunku Ahmad Yahaya's b/br c 3y High Chaparral (IRE) - Triassic (NZ). Trainer: J B Cummings) 49.5 (G Boss) 1, 19.00 MANHATTAN RAIN 49.5 (Craig Williams) 2, 12.00 ZIPPING 59 (S W Arnold) 3.
Then followed:
16.00 El Segundo 59 (L Nolen) 20.00 Scenic Shot 59 (S Scriven) 2.80 fav Whobegotyou 57.5 (D Oliver) 7.50 Heart Of Dreams 57.5 (C Newitt) 16.00 Rock Kingdom 57.5 (N Rawiller) 21.00 Black Piranha 59 (T Angland) 21.00 Road To Rock 59 (G Schofield) 21.00 Vision And Power 59 (J Bowman) 11.00 Speed Gifted 59 (D Dunn) 71.00 Nom Du Jeu 59 (M Rodd) last. Scr: Sir Slick. 2-1/2 len, lg nk. Time: 2:03.98. (Last 600m 35.31).
1st So You Think
2nd Manhattan Rain
3rd Zipping
14.00 SO YOU THINK (Dato Tan Chin Nam & Tunku Ahmad Yahaya's b/br c 3y High Chaparral (IRE) - Triassic (NZ). Trainer: J B Cummings) 49.5 (G Boss) 1, 19.00 MANHATTAN RAIN 49.5 (Craig Williams) 2, 12.00 ZIPPING 59 (S W Arnold) 3.
Then followed:
16.00 El Segundo 59 (L Nolen) 20.00 Scenic Shot 59 (S Scriven) 2.80 fav Whobegotyou 57.5 (D Oliver) 7.50 Heart Of Dreams 57.5 (C Newitt) 16.00 Rock Kingdom 57.5 (N Rawiller) 21.00 Black Piranha 59 (T Angland) 21.00 Road To Rock 59 (G Schofield) 21.00 Vision And Power 59 (J Bowman) 11.00 Speed Gifted 59 (D Dunn) 71.00 Nom Du Jeu 59 (M Rodd) last. Scr: Sir Slick. 2-1/2 len, lg nk. Time: 2:03.98. (Last 600m 35.31).
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