Sunday, August 29, 2010

Statistics, MakybeDiva, Mark Kavanagh, Shocking, Shoot Out, C'Est La Guerre, Alandi and Mourayan

HeraldSun.com.au
Nathan Exelby From: Saturday, 28 August 2010

THE Makybe Diva Stakes, formerly the Craiglee Stakes, was a sure-fire pointer to big race success but it has not been so reliable in recent years.

The race, previously known as the Craiglee Stakes, was once a sure-fire pointer to big race success but it has not been so reliable in recent years.

The 1600m Flemington weight-for-age contest, to be run on Saturday, is regarded as one of the pivotal races of the spring.

Over the years countless Cups aspirants have used it as a leap into what connections hoped would be spring glory. The race was first run in 1948 as a 10 furlong (2000m) event. It switched to a mile (1600m) in 1965 with instant success, as the race was taken out by Light Fingers who went on to win that year's Melbourne Cup.

A year later Tobin Bronze won the Craiglee before landing the first of two Cox Plates and in 1969 Rain Lover took out the race en route to a second Melbourne Cup.

This trend of success continued in the next three decades and the race remains a key pointer to Group 1 races that follow in the spring.

It's just that in the past few years, the race has been devoid of "big three" winners.

But Mark Kavanagh is one trainer hoping the bad omens surrounding the Makybe Diva Stakes will change this year.

Melbourne Cup winner Shocking is set to start in the Makybe Diva after bypassing yesterday's Memsie Stakes.

Shocking made a pleasing return behind Shoot Out in the Liston a fortnight ago and is aiming to be just the sixth galloper to win multiple Melbourne Cups.

Kavanagh says Shocking is "right on track" and feels the 1600m will suit better at this stage of his campaign.

Lloyd Williams has frequently used the race as a spring opener, having won with Mahogany and Native Jazz. Stable representative Nick Williams said the big hope for this year's carnival, Linton, would bypass the Makybe Diva, but the family would still be represented by C'Est La Guerre, Alandi and Mourayan next weekend.

The 2007 Melbourne Cup winner Efficient has become a "day to day proposition" according to Williams. "We are hoping and have our fingers crossed," Williams said.

In the 20 runnings of the Makybe Diva Stakes from 1985 to 2004, when it was known as the Craiglee, no fewer than eight Caulfield Cup winners came through the race (which was changed to the Makybe Diva Stakes in 2007 even though the mighty mare never contested the race).

Of the eight, Sky Heights (1999) and Northerly (2002) won the Craiglee, while Tristarc (1985), Sydeston (1990), Mummify (2003) and Elvstroem (2004) placed at Flemington.

Fraar (1993) and Diatribe (2000) were both well beaten in the Craiglee, but found their best form over the 2400m at Caulfield.

The Craiglee also produced five Melbourne Cup winners in the nine runnings from 1986 to 1994.

At Talaq (1986), Subzero (1992) and Jeune (1994) all put the writing on the wall with Craiglee placings, while Tawrrific (1989) and Kingston Rule (1990) used the race as a tune-up for their 3200m assignment.

Cox Plate winners have been thinner on the ground over the same time frame, with Almaarad (1989) and Northerly (2002) the only two Moonee Valley winners to use the Craiglee as a lead-up, although Dulcify, Family Of Man and Tobin Bronze all came through the race in earlier years.

So while the Craiglee enjoyed a golden period from the mid 1980s to early 2000s in unearthing Cups and Cox Plate winners, it has been a dry run since, with Elvstroem being the most recent "big three" winner to use the race as a stepping stone.

Despite missing out on the really big ones, the Makybe Diva/Craiglee has supplied spring Group 1 winners in nine of the past 10 seasons.

Typhoon Tracy (Myer Classic) and Heart Of Dreams (Underwood) graduated from the race last year.

Finally, here's a sobering note for punters wanting to follow the Makybe Diva Stakes winner throughout the spring: From the past 25 runnings, 21 of the winners failed to win another race that campaign.

The exceptions were Weekend Hussler, Northerly, Sky Heights and Marble Halls.

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